Mensajero v UD San Fernando prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MensajeroDrawUD San Fernando

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · UD San Fernando 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with UD San Fernando just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mensajero 34%, draw 30%, UD San Fernando 35%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Mensajero v UD San FernandoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mensajero win34%

Draw30%

UD San Fernando win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mensajero

UD San Fernando

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ud san fernando winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make UD San Fernando a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mensajero v UD San Fernando~~1.09 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UD San Fernando win

Published at 33%, 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mensajero win	34%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
UD San Fernando win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Mensajero or draw	65%	–	–
Mensajero clean sheet	33%	–	–
UD San Fernando clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.0 11.6 6.9 2.6 1 11.3 13.7 7.2 2.7 2 6.6 7.1 3.9 3 2.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mensajero down, UD San Fernando across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,506 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mensajero at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). UD San Fernando away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Mensajero, 1.12 for UD San Fernando. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MEN 1–0 UDS · UDS 4–0 MEN · UDS 0–0 MEN · MEN 1–1 UDS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept

MENSAJERO

LWWDDL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–5

UD SAN FERNANDO

WLWWWW5–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	8	+11	17
3	San Miguel	8	+10	16
4	Real Unión de Tenerife	8	+5	16
5	Tenerife C	8	+4	14
6	Marino	7	+7	13
7	Las Palmas III	8	+6	13
8	Unión Sur Yaiza	8	+2	13
9	Mensajero	7	−3	11
10	Los Llanos	8	+1	10
11	San Bartolomé	8	0	10
12	Anaza	8	−4	9
13	Villa Santa Brígida	8	−4	9
14	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
15	Estrella	8	−7	7
16	Playas Sotavento	8	−15	4
17	Laguna de Duero	8	−11	2
18	Villaverde Norte	8	−14	2