Mensajero v San Bartolomé prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Mensajero 2–2 San Bartolomé MENSAJERO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mensajero win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.976

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mensajero win at 61%.
1′KICK-OFF Mensajero v San Bartolomé
2′Much as we predicted: Mensajero was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Mensajero 1–0 San Bartolomé
39′27′ and it is 1–0: Mensajero have scored. 1–0 · 85–12–3
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Mensajero win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Mensajero win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
40′27′ and it is 1–0: Mensajero have scored. 1–0 · 85–12–3
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Mensajero win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mensajero win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
45′HALF-TIME Mensajero 1–0 San Bartolomé
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Mensajero win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
46′SECOND HALF Mensajero 1–0 San Bartolomé
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Mensajero 2–0 San Bartolomé
58′⚽ GOAL · 27' Mensajero 2–0 San Bartolomé
58′⚽ GOAL · 53' Mensajero 2–0 San Bartolomé
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Mensajero 2–1 San Bartolomé
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Mensajero 2–2 San Bartolomé
FTFULL TIME Mensajero 2–2 San Bartolomé
FTMensajero 2–2 San Bartolomé · Mensajero win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mensajero win61%

Draw24%

San Bartolomé win15%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mensajero

San Bartolomé

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mensajero	4	+2	9
7	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mensajero winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Mensajero a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mensajero win	61%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
San Bartolomé win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Mensajero or draw	85%	–	–
Mensajero clean sheet	49%	–	–
San Bartolomé clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 9.1 5.6 2.3 1 14.0 11.0 3.8 2 12.7 9.1 3.3 3 7.5 5.4 4 3.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mensajero down, San Bartolomé across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,479 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mensajero at home: 1.17 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). San Bartolomé away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Mensajero, 0.73 for San Bartolomé. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 MEN · MEN 2–0 SAN · MEN 0–1 SAN · SAN 2–2 MEN

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

MENSAJERO

LWWLWW0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

SAN BARTOLOMÉ

DWWWDD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Unión de Tenerife	5	+5	12
2	San Miguel	5	+5	10
3	Panadería Pulido	5	+3	10
4	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
5	Mensajero	4	+2	9
6	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
7	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8
8	Marino	5	+5	7
9	Tenerife C	5	+1	7
10	Los Llanos	5	0	7
11	Estrella	5	−2	7
12	Lanzarote	4	+1	6
13	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
14	Unión Sur Yaiza	5	−1	6
15	Anaza	5	−5	4
16	Laguna de Duero	5	−6	1
17	Villaverde Norte	5	−8	1
18	Playas Sotavento	5	−15	1