Marino v Estrella prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Marino 1–0 Estrella MARINO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marino win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.173

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marino win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Marino 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–14
1′KICK-OFF Marino v Estrella
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Marino win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
40′A goal for Marino on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
40′We said Marino at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Marino 1–0 Estrella
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Marino win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
45′HALF-TIME Marino 1–0 Estrella
46′SECOND HALF Marino 1–0 Estrella
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Marino win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
73′Marino score on 72′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Marino 2–0 Estrella
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Marino win: 66% at kick-off, 99% now
74′We said Marino at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Marino
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Marino win: 66% at kick-off, 90% now
84′We said Marino at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Marino win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Marino 1–0 Estrella
FTMarino 1–0 Estrella · Marino win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marino are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marino 66%, draw 20%, Estrella 14%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Marino v EstrellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Marino win66%

Draw20%

Estrella win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marino

Estrella

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Marino	5	+5	7
12	Estrella	5	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marino winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Marino a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marino v Estrella~~2.22 – 0.89

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~10 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marino win	66%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Estrella win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Marino or draw	86%	–	–
Marino clean sheet	42%	–	–
Estrella clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 5.4 3.8 1 9.7 9.3 3.9 2 10.8 9.3 4.1 3 7.9 6.7 3.0 4 4.5 3.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Marino down, Estrella across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marino at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Estrella away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Marino, 0.89 for Estrella. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EST 2–2 MAR · MAR 4–1 EST · EST 2–0 MAR · MAR 5–1 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

MARINO

LWDWL1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 6–1 · 1–2

ESTRELLA

WLDLW3–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
6	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
7	San Miguel	6	+2	10
8	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
9	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
10	Marino	5	+5	7
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	5	−2	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2