Los Llanos v Mensajero prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Los LlanosDrawMensajero

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mensajero 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mensajero just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Los Llanos 33%, draw 30%, Mensajero 37%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Los Llanos v MensajeroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Los Llanos win33%

Draw30%

Mensajero win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Los Llanos

Mensajero

7Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Mensajero	7	−3	11
10	Los Llanos	8	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mensajero winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Mensajero a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Los Llanos v Mensajero~~1.06 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Llanos win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Mensajero win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Los Llanos or draw	63%	–	–
Los Llanos clean sheet	32%	–	–
Mensajero clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.0 12.0 7.3 2.9 1 10.9 13.6 7.4 2.9 2 6.2 6.9 3.9 3 2.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Llanos down, Mensajero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,506 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Los Llanos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mensajero away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Los Llanos, 1.16 for Mensajero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LOS 0–2 MEN · MEN 1–0 LOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept

LOS LLANOS

DWLWLL2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

MENSAJERO

LWWDDL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	8	+11	17
3	San Miguel	8	+10	16
4	Real Unión de Tenerife	8	+5	16
5	Tenerife C	8	+4	14
6	Marino	7	+7	13
7	Las Palmas III	8	+6	13
8	Unión Sur Yaiza	8	+2	13
9	Mensajero	7	−3	11
10	Los Llanos	8	+1	10
11	San Bartolomé	8	0	10
12	Anaza	8	−4	9
13	Villa Santa Brígida	8	−4	9
14	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
15	Estrella	8	−7	7
16	Playas Sotavento	8	−15	4
17	Laguna de Duero	8	−11	2
18	Villaverde Norte	8	−14	2