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Los Llanos v Marino

Los Llanos

1–2Full time

Marino

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:30

Los Llanos 1–2 Marino LOS LLANOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Los Llanos win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.715

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Los Llanos win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Los Llanos 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
1′KICK-OFF Los Llanos v Marino
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Los Llanos win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Los Llanos 0–0 Marino
46′SECOND HALF Los Llanos 0–0 Marino
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Los Llanos win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We said Los Llanos at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–48–23
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–48–23
64′We said Los Llanos at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Los Llanos win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
72′We said Los Llanos at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
73′Los Llanos find the net on 72′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Los Llanos 1–0 Marino
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Los Llanos win: 40% at kick-off, 85% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Los Llanos win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 65%)
74′We said Los Llanos at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
80′We said Los Llanos at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Los Llanos win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
82′A goal for Marino on 82′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 10–82–8
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Los Llanos 1–1 Marino
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Los Llanos win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Los Llanos win 92%)
83′We said Los Llanos at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–8
84′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 8–86–7
90′We said Los Llanos at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
99′Marino score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Los Llanos 1–2 Marino
99′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+9' Los Llanos win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+9' Marino win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
100′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Los Llanos 1–2 Marino
FTLos Llanos 1–2 Marino · Los Llanos win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Los Llanos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Los Llanos 40%, draw 28%, Marino 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Los Llanos v MarinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Los Llanos win40%

Draw28%

Marino win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Los Llanos

Marino

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Marino	6	+6	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · los llanos winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Los Llanos a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Los Llanos v Marino~~1.31 – 1.12

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Los Llanos win

Published at 37%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Llanos win	40%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Marino win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Los Llanos or draw	69%	–	–
Los Llanos clean sheet	33%	–	–
Marino clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.9 9.3 5.6 2.1 1 10.9 13.2 7.0 2.7 2 7.5 8.1 4.5 3 3.4 3.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Llanos down, Marino across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Los Llanos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Marino away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Los Llanos, 1.12 for Marino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAR 4–0 LOS · LOS 0–2 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

LOS LLANOS

LWDWLW0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0

MARINO

LWDWLW1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 6–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2