Las Palmas III v Laguna de Duero prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:00

Las Palmas III 3–0 Laguna de Duero LAS PALMAS III WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Las Palmas III win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.124

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Las Palmas III win at 71%.
1′KICK-OFF Las Palmas III v Laguna de Duero
2′Much as we predicted: Las Palmas III was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–17–12
18′Las Palmas III score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Las Palmas III 1–0 Laguna de Duero
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Las Palmas III win: 71% at kick-off, 87% now
19′We published Las Palmas III at 71%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
45′HALF-TIME Las Palmas III 1–0 Laguna de Duero
46′SECOND HALF Las Palmas III 1–0 Laguna de Duero
62′Las Palmas III find the net on 62′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Las Palmas III 2–0 Laguna de Duero
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Las Palmas III win: 71% at kick-off, 98% now
63′We published Las Palmas III at 71%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
79′We published Las Palmas III at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′A goal for Las Palmas III on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Las Palmas III 3–0 Laguna de Duero
FTFULL TIME Las Palmas III 3–0 Laguna de Duero
FTLas Palmas III 3–0 Laguna de Duero · Las Palmas III win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Las Palmas III are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Las Palmas III 71%, draw 17%, Laguna de Duero 12%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Las Palmas III v Laguna de DueroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Las Palmas III win71%

Draw17%

Laguna de Duero win12%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Las Palmas III

Laguna de Duero

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · las palmas iii winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Las Palmas III a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Las Palmas III v Laguna de Duero~~2.55 – 0.91

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~9 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Las Palmas III win	71%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Laguna de Duero win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Las Palmas III or draw	88%	–	–
Las Palmas III clean sheet	41%	–	–
Laguna de Duero clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 3.9 2.7 1 7.9 7.8 3.4 2 10.1 9.0 4.1 3 8.4 7.4 3.4 4 5.4 4.7 2.2 5 2.9 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Las Palmas III down, Laguna de Duero across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Las Palmas III at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Laguna de Duero away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Las Palmas III, 0.91 for Laguna de Duero. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

LAS PALMAS III

WWDLDD2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

LAGUNA DE DUERO

LLDLLD0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2