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Lanzarote v UD San Fernando

Lanzarote

0–1Full time

UD San Fernando

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Lanzarote 0–1 UD San Fernando LANZAROTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lanzarote win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.697

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lanzarote win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lanzarote 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–32
1′KICK-OFF Lanzarote v UD San Fernando
3′Little has changed for our model: Lanzarote 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–31–32
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Lanzarote win 32%)
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Lanzarote 0–1 UD San Fernando
44′A goal for UD San Fernando on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 32% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was UD San Fernando win 28%)
45′A goal for UD San Fernando on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 32% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was UD San Fernando win 28%)
45′HALF-TIME Lanzarote 0–1 UD San Fernando
46′SECOND HALF Lanzarote 0–1 UD San Fernando
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lanzarote win 7%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lanzarote win 7%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lanzarote win 7%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lanzarote win 7%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lanzarote win 7%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Lanzarote win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' UD San Fernando win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lanzarote win 7%)
FTFULL TIME Lanzarote 0–1 UD San Fernando
FTLanzarote 0–1 UD San Fernando · Lanzarote win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lanzarote win37%

Draw31%

UD San Fernando win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lanzarote

UD San Fernando

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
12	Lanzarote	4	+1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lanzarote winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Lanzarote a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lanzarote win	37%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
UD San Fernando win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Lanzarote or draw	68%	–	–
Lanzarote clean sheet	37%	–	–
UD San Fernando clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.4 11.7 6.2 2.1 1 12.8 13.8 6.5 2.2 2 7.4 7.2 3.6 3 2.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lanzarote down, UD San Fernando across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,479 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lanzarote at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). UD San Fernando away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Lanzarote, 1.00 for UD San Fernando. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LAN 1–1 UDS · UDS 2–0 LAN · UDS 2–1 LAN · LAN 0–3 UDS

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

LANZAROTE

DDDDDW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

UD SAN FERNANDO

LDWWLW0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Unión de Tenerife	5	+5	12
2	San Miguel	5	+5	10
3	Panadería Pulido	5	+3	10
4	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
5	Mensajero	4	+2	9
6	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
7	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8
8	Marino	5	+5	7
9	Tenerife C	5	+1	7
10	Los Llanos	5	0	7
11	Estrella	5	−2	7
12	Lanzarote	4	+1	6
13	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
14	Unión Sur Yaiza	5	−1	6
15	Anaza	5	−5	4
16	Laguna de Duero	5	−6	1
17	Villaverde Norte	5	−8	1
18	Playas Sotavento	5	−15	1