Lanzarote v Marino prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LanzaroteDrawMarino

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lanzarote 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lanzarote are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lanzarote 55%, draw 25%, Marino 20%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Lanzarote v MarinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lanzarote win55%

Draw25%

Marino win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lanzarote

Marino

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Marino	7	+7	13
14	Lanzarote	7	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lanzarote winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Lanzarote a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lanzarote v Marino~~1.69 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~14 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lanzarote win	55%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Marino win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Lanzarote or draw	80%	–	–
Lanzarote clean sheet	40%	–	–
Marino clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 8.3 6.3 3.2 1 11.9 11.8 5.2 2 10.4 9.3 4.3 3 5.9 5.3 2.4 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lanzarote down, Marino across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,506 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lanzarote at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Marino away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Lanzarote, 0.92 for Marino. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAR 1–1 LAN · LAN 2–1 MAR · LAN 3–0 MAR · MAR 2–4 LAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 18 Sept

LANZAROTE

DDWLLD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

MARINO

WDWLWW3–1 · 2–2 · 6–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	8	+11	17
3	San Miguel	8	+10	16
4	Real Unión de Tenerife	8	+5	16
5	Tenerife C	8	+4	14
6	Marino	7	+7	13
7	Las Palmas III	8	+6	13
8	Unión Sur Yaiza	8	+2	13
9	Mensajero	7	−3	11
10	Los Llanos	8	+1	10
11	San Bartolomé	8	0	10
12	Anaza	8	−4	9
13	Villa Santa Brígida	8	−4	9
14	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
15	Estrella	8	−7	7
16	Playas Sotavento	8	−15	4
17	Laguna de Duero	8	−11	2
18	Villaverde Norte	8	−14	2