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Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 › Laguna de Duero v Playas Sotavento

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Laguna de Duero v Playas Sotavento

Laguna de Duero
1–1Full time
Playas Sotavento

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Laguna de Duero 1–1 Playas Sotavento LAGUNA DE DUERO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Laguna de Duero win63%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.071

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Laguna de Duero win at 63%.
  2. 1′Laguna de Duero score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–7
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Laguna de Duero v Playas Sotavento
  4. 2′We published Laguna de Duero at 63%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–7
  5. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–6
  6. 30′Playas Sotavento find the net on 30′. 1–1. 1–1 · 56–26–18
  7. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Laguna de Duero 1–1 Playas Sotavento
  8. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Laguna de Duero win: 63% at kick-off, 56% now
  9. 31′Much as we predicted: Laguna de Duero was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 1–1 · 55–26–18
  10. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Laguna de Duero win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
  11. 45′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 50–32–18
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Laguna de Duero 1–1 Playas Sotavento
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Laguna de Duero 1–1 Playas Sotavento
  14. 54′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 1–1 · 45–37–17
  15. 56′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–39–17
  16. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Laguna de Duero win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
  17. 63′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–45–16
  18. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Laguna de Duero win 39%)
  19. 69′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–52–14
  20. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Laguna de Duero win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
  21. 74′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–59–12
  22. 78′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–66–10
  23. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Laguna de Duero win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
  24. 81′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–73–9
  25. 84′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–80–6
  26. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Laguna de Duero win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
  27. 88′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–4
  28. 93′We said Laguna de Duero at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–2
  29. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Laguna de Duero win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
  30. FTFULL TIME Laguna de Duero 1–1 Playas Sotavento
  31. FTLaguna de Duero 1–1 Playas Sotavento · Laguna de Duero win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Laguna de Duero are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Laguna de Duero 63%, draw 20%, Playas Sotavento 17%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Laguna de Duero v Playas SotaventoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Laguna de Duero win63%
Draw20%
Playas Sotavento win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Laguna de Duero

Playas Sotavento

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
16Laguna de Duero5−61
18Playas Sotavento5−151

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · laguna de duero winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
63% The market–
Us63%

We make Laguna de Duero a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Laguna de Duero v Playas Sotavento2.31 – 1.12
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 SeptW0 D1 L4 · W0 D1 L4
Table places · points 1 v 116 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Laguna de Duero win63%––
Draw20%––
Playas Sotavento win17%––
Over 2.5 goals66%––
Both teams to score60%––
Over 1.5 goals85%––
Over 3.5 goals45%––
Laguna de Duero or draw83%––
Laguna de Duero clean sheet33%––
Playas Sotavento clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 4.0 3.5 2.2 1 7.3 8.7 4.6 2 8.5 9.2 5.1 3 6.5 7.0 3.9 4 3.8 4.1 2.3 5 2.0
under 2% 5% 12%+Laguna de Duero down, Playas Sotavento across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

LAGUNA DE DUERO

LLDLL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–4

PLAYAS SOTAVENTO

LLDLL0–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–6 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1UD San Fernando5+1012
2Real Unión de Tenerife5+512
3San Miguel5+510
4Panadería Pulido5+310
5Mensajero5+210
6San Bartolomé5+39
7Las Palmas III5+38
8Marino5+57
9Tenerife C5+17
10Los Llanos507
11Estrella5−27
12Lanzarote506
13Villa Santa Brígida506
14Unión Sur Yaiza5−16
15Anaza5−54
16Laguna de Duero5−61
17Villaverde Norte5−81
18Playas Sotavento5−151

The competition's standings before kick-off.