Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 › Laguna de Duero v Panadería Pulido

Laguna de Duero v Panadería Pulido

Laguna de Duero

3–4Full time

Panadería Pulido

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Laguna de Duero 3–4 Panadería Pulido PANADERÍA PULIDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panadería Pulido win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Laguna de Duero win35%

Draw27%

Panadería Pulido win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panadería pulido winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Panadería Pulido a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laguna de Duero win	35%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Panadería Pulido win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Laguna de Duero or draw	62%	–	–
Laguna de Duero clean sheet	26%	–	–
Panadería Pulido clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 9.0 6.5 3.0 1 8.5 12.7 8.1 3.8 2 5.9 7.7 5.2 2.4 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laguna de Duero down, Panadería Pulido across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Laguna de Duero at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). Panadería Pulido away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Laguna de Duero, 1.37 for Panadería Pulido. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

LAGUNA DE DUERO

LLDL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

PANADERÍA PULIDO

LWWDLW0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Miguel	5	+5	10
2	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	4	+2	9
4	Mensajero	4	+2	9
5	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
6	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8
7	Marino	4	+6	7
8	Panadería Pulido	4	+2	7
9	Los Llanos	4	+1	7
10	Lanzarote	4	+1	6
11	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
12	Tenerife C	4	−2	4
13	Estrella	4	−3	4
14	Anaza	5	−5	4
15	Unión Sur Yaiza	4	−2	3
16	Laguna de Duero	4	−5	1
17	Villaverde Norte	4	−5	1
18	Playas Sotavento	4	−12	1