Estrella v Real Unión de Tenerife prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Estrella 0–1 Real Unión de Tenerife REAL UNIÓN DE TENERIFE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Unión de Tenerife win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Unión de Tenerife are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estrella 31%, draw 30%, Real Unión de Tenerife 39%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Estrella v Real Unión de TenerifeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Estrella win31%

Draw30%

Real Unión de Tenerife win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estrella

Real Unión de Tenerife

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Real Unión de Tenerife	7	+4	13
13	Estrella	7	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real unión de tenerife winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Real Unión de Tenerife a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estrella v Real Unión de Tenerife~~1.01 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Unión de Tenerife win

Published at 38%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrella win	31%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Real Unión de Tenerife win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Estrella or draw	61%	–	–
Estrella clean sheet	31%	–	–
Real Unión de Tenerife clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.1 12.5 7.8 3.2 1 10.5 13.5 7.6 3.1 2 5.7 6.5 3.9 3 2.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrella down, Real Unión de Tenerife across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Estrella at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Unión de Tenerife away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Estrella, 1.20 for Real Unión de Tenerife. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 18 Sept

ESTRELLA

LDLWLL2–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

REAL UNIÓN DE TENERIFE

LWWWDL1–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	7	+11	16
3	Marino	7	+7	13
4	San Miguel	7	+5	13
5	Tenerife C	7	+4	13
6	Real Unión de Tenerife	7	+4	13
7	Las Palmas III	7	+6	12
8	Mensajero	7	−3	11
9	Los Llanos	7	+2	10
10	San Bartolomé	7	+1	10
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	7	0	10
12	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
13	Estrella	7	−6	7
14	Anaza	7	−5	6
15	Villa Santa Brígida	7	−5	6
16	Playas Sotavento	7	−15	3
17	Laguna de Duero	7	−9	2
18	Villaverde Norte	7	−9	2