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Estrella v Los Llanos

Estrella

1–0Full time

Los Llanos

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Estrella 1–0 Los Llanos ESTRELLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estrella win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.471

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estrella win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Estrella v Los Llanos
2′Little has changed for our model: Estrella 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
45′HALF-TIME Estrella 0–0 Los Llanos
46′SECOND HALF Estrella 0–0 Los Llanos
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Estrella 1–0 Los Llanos
FTFULL TIME Estrella 1–0 Los Llanos
FTEstrella 1–0 Los Llanos · Estrella win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Estrella win44%

Draw28%

Los Llanos win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estrella winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Estrella a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrella win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Los Llanos win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Estrella or draw	72%	–	–
Estrella clean sheet	35%	–	–
Los Llanos clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 8.4 4.9 1 11.1 12.8 6.5 2.4 2 8.2 8.5 4.5 3 4.0 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrella down, Los Llanos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estrella at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Los Llanos away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Estrella, 1.07 for Los Llanos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EST 0–0 LOS · LOS 3–1 EST

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

ESTRELLA

LWWLDL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–3

LOS LLANOS

LLLWDW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Miguel	5	+5	10
2	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	4	+2	9
4	Mensajero	4	+2	9
5	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
6	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8
7	Marino	4	+6	7
8	Panadería Pulido	4	+2	7
9	Los Llanos	4	+1	7
10	Lanzarote	4	+1	6
11	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
12	Tenerife C	4	−2	4
13	Estrella	4	−3	4
14	Anaza	5	−5	4
15	Unión Sur Yaiza	4	−2	3
16	Laguna de Duero	4	−5	1
17	Villaverde Norte	4	−5	1
18	Playas Sotavento	4	−12	1