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Anaza v San Miguel

Anaza

0–2Full time

San Miguel

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:30

Anaza 0–2 San Miguel ANAZA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anaza win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Anaza win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Anaza was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Anaza v San Miguel
21′PENALTY MISSED · 21' San Miguel
45′HALF-TIME Anaza 0–0 San Miguel
46′SECOND HALF Anaza 0–0 San Miguel
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Anaza 0–1 San Miguel
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Anaza 0–2 San Miguel
FTAnaza 0–2 San Miguel · Anaza win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Anaza win44%

Draw28%

San Miguel win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anaza winPublished 9 Oct 20:33

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Anaza a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anaza win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
San Miguel win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Anaza or draw	72%	–	–
Anaza clean sheet	35%	–	–
San Miguel clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.2 8.3 4.8 1 11.1 12.8 6.5 2.4 2 8.3 8.6 4.6 3 4.0 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anaza down, San Miguel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Anaza at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). San Miguel away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Anaza, 1.08 for San Miguel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

ANAZA

DWLL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–5

SAN MIGUEL

DWDWLW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
2	Real Unión de Tenerife	4	+2	9
3	Mensajero	4	+2	9
4	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8
5	Marino	4	+6	7
6	Las Palmas III	4	+3	7
7	San Miguel	4	+3	7
8	Panadería Pulido	4	+2	7
9	Los Llanos	4	+1	7
10	Lanzarote	4	+1	6
11	Villa Santa Brígida	4	0	5
12	Tenerife C	4	−2	4
13	Estrella	4	−3	4
14	Anaza	4	−3	4
15	Unión Sur Yaiza	4	−2	3
16	Laguna de Duero	4	−5	1
17	Villaverde Norte	4	−5	1
18	Playas Sotavento	4	−12	1