Anaza v San Bartolomé prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Anaza 2–1 San Bartolomé ANAZA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anaza win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.399

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anaza are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anaza 48%, draw 26%, San Bartolomé 25%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Anaza v San BartoloméBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Anaza win48%

Draw26%

San Bartolomé win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anaza

San Bartolomé

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	San Bartolomé	7	+1	10
15	Anaza	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anaza winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Anaza a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anaza v San Bartolomé~~1.58 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Anaza win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anaza win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
San Bartolomé win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Anaza or draw	75%	–	–
Anaza clean sheet	35%	–	–
San Bartolomé clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.2 7.1 4.1 1 10.7 12.3 6.2 2.2 2 8.8 9.1 4.8 3 4.7 4.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anaza down, San Bartolomé across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Anaza at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). San Bartolomé away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Anaza, 1.06 for San Bartolomé. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept

ANAZA

WLLLDD1–0 · 2–3 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

SAN BARTOLOMÉ

WDDDLD4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	8	+11	17
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	8	+5	16
4	Marino	7	+7	13
5	San Miguel	7	+5	13
6	Tenerife C	7	+4	13
7	Unión Sur Yaiza	8	+2	13
8	Las Palmas III	7	+6	12
9	Mensajero	7	−3	11
10	San Bartolomé	7	+1	10
11	Los Llanos	8	+1	10
12	Villa Santa Brígida	8	−4	9
13	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
14	Estrella	8	−7	7
15	Anaza	7	−5	6
16	Playas Sotavento	8	−15	4
17	Villaverde Norte	7	−9	2
18	Laguna de Duero	8	−11	2