Anaza v Lanzarote prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:00

Anaza 1–1 Lanzarote ANAZA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Anaza win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.764

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Anaza win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Anaza 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Anaza v Lanzarote
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Anaza win 33%)
35′A goal for Lanzarote on 35′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–69
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Anaza 0–1 Lanzarote
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Anaza win: 36% at kick-off, 10% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Lanzarote win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 37%)
36′We said Anaza at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–69
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–69
37′We said Anaza at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′HALF-TIME Anaza 0–1 Lanzarote
46′A. Cordero scores for Lanzarote on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
46′SECOND HALF Anaza 0–1 Lanzarote
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Anaza win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
61′We said Anaza at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
82′Anaza score on 82′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 9–82–9
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Anaza 1–1 Lanzarote
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Lanzarote win 90%)
FTFULL TIME Anaza 1–1 Lanzarote
FTAnaza 1–1 Lanzarote · Anaza win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Anaza just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Anaza 36%, draw 29%, Lanzarote 35%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Anaza v LanzaroteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Anaza win36%

Draw29%

Lanzarote win35%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anaza

Lanzarote

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anaza winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Anaza a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anaza v Lanzarote~~1.22 – 1.21

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~15 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Anaza win

Published at 34%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anaza win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Lanzarote win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Anaza or draw	65%	–	–
Anaza clean sheet	30%	–	–
Lanzarote clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.9 10.1 6.5 2.7 1 10.1 13.3 7.6 3.1 2 6.5 7.7 4.6 3 2.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anaza down, Lanzarote across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Anaza at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Lanzarote away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Anaza, 1.21 for Lanzarote. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

ANAZA

DWLLLD0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 1–1

LANZAROTE

DDDWLL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2