Sineu v Cardassar prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SineuDrawCardassar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cardassar 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cardassar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sineu 32%, draw 25%, Cardassar 43%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Sineu v CardassarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sineu win32%

Draw25%

Cardassar win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sineu

Cardassar

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
18	Sineu	7	−13	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cardassar winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Cardassar a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sineu v Cardassar~~1.26 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 13~~18 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sineu win	32%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Cardassar win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Sineu or draw	57%	–	–
Sineu clean sheet	23%	–	–
Cardassar clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 9.4 7.1 3.7 1 7.8 11.6 8.5 4.4 2 5.0 7.2 5.3 2.7 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sineu down, Cardassar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sineu at home: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 3). Cardassar away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Sineu, 1.54 for Cardassar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept

SINEU

LLLLLD2–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

CARDASSAR

WWLWWL3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 6–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Platges Calvià	8	+8	18
2	Constància	8	+10	17
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	7	+9	17
4	Manacor	7	+9	16
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	7	+5	13
7	Porreres	7	+4	12
8	PE Sant Jordi	7	+3	12
9	Alcúdia	7	+2	12
10	Formentera	7	+3	11
11	Llosetense	8	−3	10
12	Mercadal	8	−5	8
13	Binissalem	7	−3	7
14	Andratx	8	−4	6
15	Migjorn	8	−9	5
16	Arenal	7	−9	4
17	Inter Ibiza	7	−13	2
18	Sineu	7	−13	1