Santanyí v Ibiza Islas Pitiusas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Santanyí 0–0 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas IBIZA ISLAS PITIUSAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santanyí 24%, draw 26%, Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 50%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Santanyí v Ibiza Islas PitiusasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Santanyí win24%

Draw26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santanyí

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

13Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ibiza islas pitiusas winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Ibiza Islas Pitiusas a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santanyí v Ibiza Islas Pitiusas~~0.92 – 1.49

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 16~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santanyí win	24%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Santanyí or draw	50%	–	–
Santanyí clean sheet	24%	–	–
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.4 13.3 10.0 5.1 2.1 1 8.3 11.8 8.5 4.2 2 4.1 5.6 3.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santanyí down, Ibiza Islas Pitiusas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,643 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santanyí at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Santanyí, 1.49 for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–1 IBI · IBI 2–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept

SANTANYÍ

DDWDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

IBIZA ISLAS PITIUSAS

WWWDWW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Constància	7	+10	16
2	Manacor	7	+9	16
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
4	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	7	−1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	−1	8
13	Binissalem	6	−3	6
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Arenal	7	−9	4
16	Migjorn	7	−9	4
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1