Porreres v Alcúdia prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Porreres are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Porreres 63%, draw 20%, Alcúdia 17%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Porreres v AlcúdiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Porreres win63%

Draw20%

Alcúdia win17%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Porreres

Alcúdia

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Porreres	7	+4	12
9	Alcúdia	7	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · porreres winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 25 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Porreres a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Porreres v Alcúdia~~2.18 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Porreres win

Published at 61%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Porreres win	63%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Alcúdia win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Porreres or draw	83%	–	–
Porreres clean sheet	36%	–	–
Alcúdia clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.4 4.2 2.2 1 8.8 9.1 4.6 2 9.5 9.5 4.9 3 6.8 6.9 3.5 4 3.8 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Porreres down, Alcúdia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Porreres at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Alcúdia away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Porreres, 1.03 for Alcúdia. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALC 1–1 POR · POR 2–3 ALC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept

PORRERES

LWWLLW1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–1

ALCÚDIA

WLLLWW2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–6 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Platges Calvià	8	+8	18
2	Constància	8	+10	17
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	7	+9	17
4	Manacor	7	+9	16
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	7	+5	13
7	Porreres	7	+4	12
8	PE Sant Jordi	7	+3	12
9	Alcúdia	7	+2	12
10	Formentera	7	+3	11
11	Llosetense	8	−3	10
12	Mercadal	8	−5	8
13	Binissalem	7	−3	7
14	Andratx	8	−4	6
15	Migjorn	8	−9	5
16	Arenal	7	−9	4
17	Inter Ibiza	7	−13	2
18	Sineu	7	−13	1