Platges Calvià v Inter Ibiza prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Platges CalviàDrawInter Ibiza

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Platges Calvià 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Platges Calvià are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Platges Calvià 59%, draw 24%, Inter Ibiza 17%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Platges Calvià v Inter IbizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Platges Calvià win59%

Draw24%

Inter Ibiza win17%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Platges Calvià

Inter Ibiza

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · platges calvià winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Platges Calvià a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Platges Calvià v Inter Ibiza~~1.76 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 2~~1 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platges Calvià win	59%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Inter Ibiza win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Platges Calvià or draw	83%	–	–
Platges Calvià clean sheet	44%	–	–
Inter Ibiza clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 8.0 6.2 2.6 1 13.2 11.0 4.5 2 11.6 9.4 3.9 3 6.8 5.5 2.3 4 3.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platges Calvià down, Inter Ibiza across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platges Calvià at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Ibiza away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Platges Calvià, 0.82 for Inter Ibiza. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~INT 2–0 PLA · PLA 3–1 INT · INT 1–1 PLA · PLA 1–0 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept

PLATGES CALVIÀ

WWWWWW3–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

INTER IBIZA

LLLDLD0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Platges Calvià	8	+8	18
2	Constància	8	+10	17
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	7	+9	17
4	Manacor	7	+9	16
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	7	+5	13
7	Porreres	7	+4	12
8	PE Sant Jordi	7	+3	12
9	Alcúdia	7	+2	12
10	Formentera	7	+3	11
11	Llosetense	8	−3	10
12	Mercadal	8	−5	8
13	Binissalem	7	−3	7
14	Andratx	8	−4	6
15	Migjorn	8	−9	5
16	Arenal	7	−9	4
17	Inter Ibiza	7	−13	2
18	Sineu	7	−13	1