Platges Calvià v Andratx prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02

Platges Calvià 1–0 Andratx PLATGES CALVIÀ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Platges Calvià win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Platges Calvià win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Platges Calvià 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Platges Calvià v Andratx
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Platges Calvià win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Platges Calvià 0–0 Andratx
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Platges Calvià win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
46′SECOND HALF Platges Calvià 0–0 Andratx
51′We said Platges Calvià at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–44–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–47–23
57′We said Platges Calvià at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
66′We said Platges Calvià at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Platges Calvià win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
74′A goal for Platges Calvià on 73′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
74′We said Platges Calvià at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Platges Calvià 1–0 Andratx
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Platges Calvià win: 43% at kick-off, 86% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Platges Calvià win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
80′We said Platges Calvià at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Platges Calvià win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
87′We said Platges Calvià at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′Andratx are down to ten from 89′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 96–4–0
89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Andratx
FTFULL TIME Platges Calvià 1–0 Andratx
FTPlatges Calvià 1–0 Andratx · Platges Calvià win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Platges Calvià are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Platges Calvià 43%, draw 26%, Andratx 31%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Platges Calvià v AndratxBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Platges Calvià win43%

Draw26%

Andratx win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Platges Calvià

Andratx

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Platges Calvià	6	+6	12
14	Andratx	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · platges calvià winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Platges Calvià a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Platges Calvià v Andratx~~1.37 – 1.12

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 5~~5 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platges Calvià win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Andratx win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Platges Calvià or draw	69%	–	–
Platges Calvià clean sheet	34%	–	–
Andratx clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.6 9.4 5.3 2.1 1 11.3 12.2 6.8 2.6 2 7.8 8.3 4.6 3 3.8 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platges Calvià down, Andratx across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,638 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platges Calvià at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Andratx away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Platges Calvià, 1.12 for Andratx. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PLA 0–0 AND · AND 1–2 PLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept

PLATGES CALVIÀ

LLWWWW1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

ANDRATX

LWDDLL0–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	6	+9	15
3	Cardassar	6	+7	13
4	Constància	6	+7	13
5	Platges Calvià	6	+6	12
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	6	−3	5
15	Migjorn	6	−9	3
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1
18	Sineu	6	−13	0