PE Sant Jordi v Santanyí prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

PE Sant Jordi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PE Sant Jordi 39%, draw 26%, Santanyí 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on PE Sant Jordi v SantanyíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

PE Sant Jordi win39%

Draw26%

Santanyí win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PE Sant Jordi

Santanyí

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pe sant jordi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

39% The market–

Us39%

We make PE Sant Jordi a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PE Sant Jordi v Santanyí~~1.34 – 1.24

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~8 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PE Sant Jordi win	39%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Santanyí win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
PE Sant Jordi or draw	66%	–	–
PE Sant Jordi clean sheet	30%	–	–
Santanyí clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.9 9.4 5.8 2.5 1 10.2 12.4 7.6 3.2 2 6.8 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PE Sant Jordi down, Santanyí across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PE Sant Jordi at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Santanyí away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for PE Sant Jordi, 1.24 for Santanyí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–4 PES · PES 1–1 SAN · PES 0–2 SAN · SAN 2–0 PES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept

PE SANT JORDI

WWDLDW1–0 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–0

SANTANYÍ

DDWDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	6	+9	15
3	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
4	Cardassar	6	+7	13
5	Constància	6	+7	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Migjorn	7	−9	4
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1