PE Sant Jordi v Alcúdia prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PE Sant JordiDrawAlcúdia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · PE Sant Jordi 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PE Sant Jordi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PE Sant Jordi 47%, draw 24%, Alcúdia 30%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on PE Sant Jordi v AlcúdiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

PE Sant Jordi win47%

Draw24%

Alcúdia win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PE Sant Jordi

Alcúdia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	PE Sant Jordi	7	+3	12
9	Alcúdia	7	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pe sant jordi winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make PE Sant Jordi a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PE Sant Jordi v Alcúdia~~1.73 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PE Sant Jordi win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Alcúdia win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
PE Sant Jordi or draw	70%	–	–
PE Sant Jordi clean sheet	27%	–	–
Alcúdia clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 6.2 4.2 1 8.1 10.7 7.0 3.2 2 7.0 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.1 5.2 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PE Sant Jordi down, Alcúdia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PE Sant Jordi at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alcúdia away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for PE Sant Jordi, 1.34 for Alcúdia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PES 0–2 ALC · ALC 2–0 PES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept

PE SANT JORDI

WDLDWD4–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2

ALCÚDIA

WLLLWW2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–6 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Platges Calvià	8	+8	18
2	Constància	8	+10	17
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	7	+9	17
4	Manacor	7	+9	16
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	7	+5	13
7	Porreres	7	+4	12
8	PE Sant Jordi	7	+3	12
9	Alcúdia	7	+2	12
10	Formentera	7	+3	11
11	Llosetense	8	−3	10
12	Mercadal	8	−5	8
13	Binissalem	7	−3	7
14	Andratx	8	−4	6
15	Migjorn	8	−9	5
16	Arenal	7	−9	4
17	Inter Ibiza	7	−13	2
18	Sineu	7	−13	1