Migjorn v Sineu prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Migjorn 0–0 Sineu MIGJORN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Migjorn win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Migjorn are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Migjorn 41%, draw 24%, Sineu 36%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Migjorn v SineuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Migjorn win41%

Draw24%

Sineu win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Migjorn

Sineu

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Migjorn	6	−9	3
18	Sineu	6	−13	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · migjorn winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Migjorn a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Migjorn v Sineu~~1.59 – 1.47

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~15 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Migjorn win

Published at 40%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Migjorn win	41%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Sineu win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Migjorn or draw	64%	–	–
Migjorn clean sheet	24%	–	–
Sineu clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.2 7.1 5.1 2.6 1 7.7 10.6 7.6 3.8 2 6.0 8.3 5.9 2.9 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Migjorn down, Sineu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,638 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Migjorn at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sineu away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Migjorn, 1.47 for Sineu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept

MIGJORN

LLLWLL0–1 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–3

SINEU

LLLLLL0–2 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	6	+9	15
3	Cardassar	6	+7	13
4	Constància	6	+7	13
5	Platges Calvià	6	+6	12
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	6	−3	5
15	Migjorn	6	−9	3
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1
18	Sineu	6	−13	0