Migjorn v Cardassar prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Migjorn 2–3 Cardassar CARDASSAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cardassar win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Migjorn win25%

Draw23%

Cardassar win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Migjorn

Cardassar

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Cardassar	5	+6	10
15	Migjorn	5	−8	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cardassar winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Cardassar a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Migjorn win	25%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Cardassar win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Migjorn or draw	48%	–	–
Migjorn clean sheet	18%	–	–
Cardassar clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.5 9.3 8.2 5.0 2.4 1 6.2 10.6 9.2 5.5 2.6 2 3.7 6.2 5.4 3.2 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Migjorn down, Cardassar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,635 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Migjorn at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cardassar away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Migjorn, 1.80 for Cardassar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

MIGJORN

LLLLWL1–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–3

CARDASSAR

WDWWLW3–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 6–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	5	+10	15
3	Constància	6	+7	13
4	Platges Calvià	6	+6	12
5	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
6	Cardassar	5	+6	10
7	Llosetense	5	+5	10
8	Santanyí	5	+2	9
9	Alcúdia	6	0	9
10	Porreres	6	0	9
11	Formentera	5	+3	8
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	6	−3	5
15	Migjorn	5	−8	3
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1
18	Sineu	6	−13	0