Mercadal v Porreres prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Mercadal 1–5 Porreres PORRERES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porreres win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Porreres win at 38%.
45′Porreres score on 45′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–93
45′We published Porreres at 38%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–5–93
46′SECOND HALF Mercadal 0–2 Porreres
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Porreres win: 38% at kick-off, 94% now
51′We published Porreres at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
64′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Porreres win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
82′We published Porreres at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Mercadal 0–2 Porreres
FTMercadal 1–5 Porreres · Porreres win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Porreres just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mercadal 34%, draw 29%, Porreres 38%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Mercadal v PorreresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mercadal win34%

Draw29%

Porreres win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:45

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mercadal

Porreres

6Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · porreres winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Porreres a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mercadal v Porreres~~1.09 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mercadal win	34%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Porreres win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Mercadal or draw	62%	–	–
Mercadal clean sheet	32%	–	–
Porreres clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.9 12.2 7.2 2.9 1 11.3 13.1 7.5 3.0 2 6.2 7.1 4.1 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mercadal down, Porreres across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,643 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mercadal at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Porreres away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Mercadal, 1.17 for Porreres. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–0 MER · MER 0–2 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept

MERCADAL

WLDLLW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

PORRERES

WLWWLL2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Constància	7	+10	16
2	Manacor	7	+9	16
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
4	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	7	−1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	−1	8
13	Binissalem	6	−3	6
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Arenal	7	−9	4
16	Migjorn	7	−9	4
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1