Llosetense v Constància prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Llosetense 0–3 Constància CONSTÀNCIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Constància win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Constància win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Constància 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
1′KICK-OFF Llosetense v Constància
23′Constància find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–66
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Llosetense 0–1 Constància
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Constància win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
24′We said Constància at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Constància win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–68
40′We said Constància at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
45′HALF-TIME Llosetense 0–1 Constància
46′SECOND HALF Llosetense 0–1 Constància
57′We said Constància at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Constància win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
64′A goal for Constància on 63′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
64′We said Constància at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Llosetense 0–2 Constància
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Constància win: 37% at kick-off, 96% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Constància win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
76′Constància score on 76′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Llosetense 0–3 Constància
77′We said Constància at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Llosetense 0–3 Constància
FTLlosetense 0–3 Constància · Constància win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Constància just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Llosetense 36%, draw 27%, Constància 37%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Llosetense v ConstànciaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Llosetense win36%

Draw27%

Constància win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llosetense

Constància

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Constància	6	+7	13
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · constància winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Constància a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llosetense v Constància~~1.24 – 1.27

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llosetense win	36%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Constància win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Llosetense or draw	63%	–	–
Llosetense clean sheet	29%	–	–
Constància clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.4 10.3 6.5 2.8 1 10.1 12.7 7.9 3.4 2 6.3 7.8 4.9 2.1 3 2.6 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llosetense down, Constància across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llosetense at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Constància away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Llosetense, 1.27 for Constància. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LLO 1–1 CON · CON 3–0 LLO · LLO 0–1 CON · CON 3–0 LLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept

LLOSETENSE

WLDWWL2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–3

CONSTÀNCIA

WDLWWW3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	6	+9	15
3	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
4	Cardassar	6	+7	13
5	Constància	6	+7	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Migjorn	7	−9	4
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1