Inter Ibiza v Binissalem prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Inter Ibiza 1–1 Binissalem INTER IBIZA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Ibiza win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.744

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Ibiza win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inter Ibiza 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Inter Ibiza v Binissalem
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Inter Ibiza win 36%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Inter Ibiza win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Inter Ibiza 0–0 Binissalem
46′SECOND HALF Inter Ibiza 0–0 Binissalem
50′We said Inter Ibiza at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
58′Inter Ibiza find the net on 58′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
58′We said Inter Ibiza at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Inter Ibiza 1–0 Binissalem
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Inter Ibiza win: 41% at kick-off, 80% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Inter Ibiza win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 54%)
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Inter Ibiza win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
69′We said Inter Ibiza at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′We said Inter Ibiza at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Inter Ibiza win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
81′We said Inter Ibiza at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–82–8
83′A goal for Binissalem on 82′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 8–86–6
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Inter Ibiza 1–1 Binissalem
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Inter Ibiza win: 41% at kick-off, 8% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Inter Ibiza win 93%)
84′We said Inter Ibiza at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–87–6
89′We said Inter Ibiza at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
FTFULL TIME Inter Ibiza 1–1 Binissalem
FTInter Ibiza 1–1 Binissalem · Inter Ibiza win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Ibiza are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Ibiza 41%, draw 30%, Binissalem 30%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Inter Ibiza v BinissalemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Inter Ibiza win41%

Draw30%

Binissalem win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Ibiza

Binissalem

14Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Binissalem	6	−3	6
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter ibiza winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Inter Ibiza a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter Ibiza v Binissalem~~1.16 – 0.94

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 1 v 6~~18 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Ibiza win	41%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Binissalem win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Inter Ibiza or draw	70%	–	–
Inter Ibiza clean sheet	39%	–	–
Binissalem clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 12.6 11.5 5.4 1 14.1 13.2 6.2 2 8.2 7.6 3.6 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Ibiza down, Binissalem across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,643 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter Ibiza at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Binissalem away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Inter Ibiza, 0.94 for Binissalem. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~INT 3–0 BIN · BIN 0–0 INT · INT 1–0 BIN · BIN 1–0 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept

INTER IBIZA

LLLLDL0–5 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3

BINISSALEM

LLLLWW1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Constància	7	+10	16
2	Manacor	7	+9	16
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
4	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	7	−1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	−1	8
13	Binissalem	6	−3	6
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Arenal	7	−9	4
16	Migjorn	7	−9	4
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1