Ibiza Islas Pitiusas v Arenal prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 82%, draw 12%, Arenal 6%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Ibiza Islas Pitiusas v ArenalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win82%

Draw12%

Arenal win6%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Arenal

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ibiza islas pitiusas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Ibiza Islas Pitiusas an 82% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–0.5, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ibiza Islas Pitiusas v Arenal~~2.84 – 0.54

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 3~~1 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win	82%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Arenal win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw	94%	–	–
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas clean sheet	59%	–	–
Arenal clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.3%

0123450 4.1 2.3 1 10.1 5.7 2 13.3 7.1 2.1 3 12.1 6.1 4 8.7 4.1 5 5.4 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Ibiza Islas Pitiusas down, Arenal across0–5 goals a side shown (91.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Arenal away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.84 goals for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas, 0.54 for Arenal. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~IBI 4–0 ARE · ARE 0–2 IBI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept

IBIZA ISLAS PITIUSAS

WWWDWW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

ARENAL

LLWLLL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	6	+9	15
3	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
4	Cardassar	6	+7	13
5	Constància	6	+7	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Migjorn	7	−9	4
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1