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Formentera v Manacor

Formentera

2–1Full time

Manacor

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 03:35

Formentera 2–1 Manacor FORMENTERA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Formentera win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

Corrected on 14 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 2–0; the score is now 2–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match pulse

FULL TIME

Match outcome probability (%)

FormenteraDrawManacor

Our model, re-priced from the score and the clock at every minuteFull time

Full time · Formentera 2–0 Manacor

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Formentera

Manacor

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Manacor	5	+10	15
11	Formentera	5	+3	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Formentera win45%

Draw25%

Manacor win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · formentera winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Formentera a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Formentera win	45%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Manacor win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Formentera or draw	70%	–	–
Formentera clean sheet	31%	–	–
Manacor clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 7.8 4.6 1 10.1 11.8 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.3 2.1 3 4.0 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Formentera down, Manacor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,635 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Formentera at home: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Manacor away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Formentera, 1.19 for Manacor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAN 3–0 FOR · FOR 0–1 MAN · MAN 1–1 FOR · FOR 0–3 MAN

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

FORMENTERA

DDWDWL2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–2

MANACOR

LWWWWW1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	5	+10	15
3	Constància	6	+7	13
4	Platges Calvià	6	+6	12
5	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
6	Cardassar	5	+6	10
7	Llosetense	5	+5	10
8	Santanyí	5	+2	9
9	Alcúdia	6	0	9
10	Porreres	6	0	9
11	Formentera	5	+3	8
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	6	−3	5
15	Migjorn	5	−8	3
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1
18	Sineu	6	−13	0