Cardassar v Mercadal prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:24

Cardassar 1–2 Mercadal CARDASSAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cardassar win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

Corrected on 19 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 1–0; the score is now 1–2 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cardassar win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cardassar was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
1′Cardassar score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–9
1′We published Cardassar at 50%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–9
1′KICK-OFF Cardassar v Mercadal
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Cardassar 1–0 Mercadal
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Cardassar win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
45′HALF-TIME Cardassar 1–0 Mercadal
46′2′: T. Nebot on the scoresheet for Cardassar, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–5
46′SECOND HALF Cardassar 1–0 Mercadal
68′We published Cardassar at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Cardassar win: 50% at kick-off, 85% now
78′We published Cardassar at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Cardassar win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
85′We published Cardassar at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Cardassar 1–0 Mercadal
FTCardassar 1–2 Mercadal · Cardassar win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cardassar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cardassar 50%, draw 26%, Mercadal 24%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cardassar v MercadalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cardassar win50%

Draw26%

Mercadal win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cardassar

Mercadal

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Cardassar	6	+7	13
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cardassar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Cardassar a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cardassar v Mercadal~~1.54 – 0.99

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 5~~4 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cardassar win	50%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Mercadal win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Cardassar or draw	76%	–	–
Cardassar clean sheet	38%	–	–
Mercadal clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.3 7.9 4.0 1 12.2 12.0 5.9 2 9.4 9.1 4.5 3 4.9 4.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cardassar down, Mercadal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cardassar at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mercadal away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Cardassar, 0.99 for Mercadal. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MER 2–1 CAR · CAR 2–1 MER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept

CARDASSAR

DWWLWW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 6–2 · 3–2

MERCADAL

DWLDLL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	6	+9	15
3	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
4	Cardassar	6	+7	13
5	Constància	6	+7	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Migjorn	7	−9	4
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1