Binissalem v Formentera prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Formentera are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Binissalem 28%, draw 31%, Formentera 41%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Binissalem v FormenteraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Binissalem win28%

Draw31%

Formentera win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Binissalem

Formentera

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · formentera winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Formentera a 41% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Binissalem v Formentera~~0.86 – 1.12

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Binissalem win	28%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Formentera win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Binissalem or draw	59%	–	–
Binissalem clean sheet	33%	–	–
Formentera clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.4%

0123450 14.1 15.4 8.6 3.3 1 11.8 13.1 7.3 2.8 2 5.2 5.7 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Binissalem down, Formentera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Binissalem at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Formentera away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Binissalem, 1.12 for Formentera. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BIN 1–1 FOR · FOR 0–1 BIN · BIN 1–1 FOR · FOR 0–0 BIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept

BINISSALEM

LLLLWW1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2

FORMENTERA

DWDWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
2	Manacor	6	+9	15
3	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
4	Cardassar	6	+7	13
5	Constància	6	+7	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	6	+2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	−3	6
13	Mercadal	6	−2	5
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Migjorn	7	−9	4
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1