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Arenal v PE Sant Jordi

Arenal

0–3Full time

PE Sant Jordi

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Arenal 0–3 PE Sant Jordi ARENAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arenal win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arenal win41%

Draw26%

PE Sant Jordi win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arenal winPublished 10 Oct 18:18

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Arenal a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arenal win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
PE Sant Jordi win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Arenal or draw	67%	–	–
Arenal clean sheet	30%	–	–
PE Sant Jordi clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.4 8.6 5.4 2.3 1 9.9 12.0 7.3 3.1 2 7.1 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.4 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arenal down, PE Sant Jordi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,629 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Arenal at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). PE Sant Jordi away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Arenal, 1.24 for PE Sant Jordi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

ARENAL

LLLWLL0–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

PE SANT JORDI

LWWDLD1–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manacor	5	+10	15
2	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	5	+6	13
3	Cardassar	5	+6	10
4	Constància	5	+6	10
5	Llosetense	5	+5	10
6	Platges Calvià	5	+4	9
7	Santanyí	5	+2	9
8	Porreres	5	+1	9
9	Formentera	5	+3	8
10	PE Sant Jordi	5	0	8
11	Alcúdia	5	−1	6
12	Mercadal	5	−1	5
13	Andratx	5	−2	5
14	Binissalem	5	−4	3
15	Arenal	5	−6	3
16	Migjorn	5	−8	3
17	Inter Ibiza	5	−10	1
18	Sineu	5	−11	0