Arenal v Manacor prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:30

Arenal 1–1 Manacor MANACOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manacor win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.061

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manacor win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Manacor was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 18–20–62
1′KICK-OFF Arenal v Manacor
6′Arenal find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 39–23–38
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Arenal 1–0 Manacor
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 38% now
7′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–0 · 40–23–37
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Arenal win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Manacor win 61%)
15′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 41–24–34
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
28′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 45–26–29
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 45–26–28
39′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 49–27–24
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
45′HALF-TIME Arenal 1–0 Manacor
46′SECOND HALF Arenal 1–0 Manacor
47′Arenal ahead on 10′ through M. de Llano. 1–0. 1–0 · 52–28–20
48′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 53–28–19
58′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 58–28–14
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
66′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 64–26–9
71′A goal for Manacor on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 13–56–31
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Arenal 1–1 Manacor
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 31% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Arenal win 69%)
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
93′We said Manacor at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 2–95–4
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Manacor win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Arenal 1–1 Manacor
FTArenal 1–1 Manacor · Manacor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manacor are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arenal 18%, draw 20%, Manacor 62%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Arenal v ManacorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Arenal win18%

Draw20%

Manacor win62%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:45

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arenal

Manacor

11Days since last match10

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Manacor	6	+9	15
16	Arenal	6	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manacor winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Manacor a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arenal v Manacor~~1.06 – 2.18

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 15~~16 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arenal win	18%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Manacor win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Arenal or draw	38%	–	–
Arenal clean sheet	12%	–	–
Manacor clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%

0123450 4.3 8.7 9.2 6.7 3.8 1 4.4 9.0 9.3 6.7 3.7 2 2.4 4.8 5.0 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arenal down, Manacor across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arenal at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Manacor away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Arenal, 2.18 for Manacor. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAN 3–1 ARE · ARE 1–3 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 5 Sept

ARENAL

LLWLLL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3

MANACOR

WWWWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Constància	7	+10	16
2	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
3	Manacor	6	+9	15
4	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	7	−1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	−1	8
13	Binissalem	6	−3	6
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Migjorn	7	−9	4
16	Arenal	6	−9	3
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1