Andratx v Migjorn prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Andratx 4–4 Migjorn ANDRATX WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Andratx win~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.358

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Andratx win at 78%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Andratx 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
1′KICK-OFF Andratx v Migjorn
14′Migjorn score on 13′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 52–22–25
14′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 0–1 · 52–22–25
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Andratx 0–1 Migjorn
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Andratx win: 78% at kick-off, 52% now
20′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–24–27
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Andratx win: 78% at kick-off, 48% now
29′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–26–30
30′Andratx find the net on 30′. 1–1. 1–1 · 69–21–10
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Andratx 1–1 Migjorn
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Andratx win: 78% at kick-off, 69% now
37′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 66%. 1–1 · 66–24–10
42′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 64–26–10
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 64–26–10
45′HALF-TIME Andratx 1–1 Migjorn
46′SECOND HALF Andratx 1–1 Migjorn
47′A goal for Migjorn on 47′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 31–30–39
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Andratx 1–2 Migjorn
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Andratx win: 78% at kick-off, 31% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Migjorn win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Andratx win 61%)
48′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–2 · 31–30–39
49′Migjorn score on 48′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 12–18–70
49′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–3 · 12–18–70
49′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 12–18–70
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Andratx 1–3 Migjorn
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Andratx win: 78% at kick-off, 12% now
54′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–3 · 9–16–74
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Andratx win: 78% at kick-off, 8% now
58′Migjorn find the net on 58′. 1–4. 1–4 · 2–5–93
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Andratx 1–4 Migjorn
59′We said Andratx at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–4 · 2–5–93
60′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 2–5–94
71′A goal for Andratx on 71′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 2–9–89
71′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 2–9–89
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Andratx 2–4 Migjorn
86′Andratx score on 85′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 1–13–86
86′7 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 1–13–86
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Andratx 3–4 Migjorn
88′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 11–86–3
88′Andratx find the net on 87′. 4–4. 4–4 · 11–86–3
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Andratx 4–4 Migjorn
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Migjorn win 87%)
FTFULL TIME Andratx 4–4 Migjorn
FTAndratx 4–4 Migjorn · Andratx win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Andratx are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Andratx 78%, draw 14%, Migjorn 8%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Andratx v MigjornBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Andratx win78%

Draw14%

Migjorn win8%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Andratx

Migjorn

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
16	Migjorn	7	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · andratx winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

78% The market–

Us78%

We make Andratx a 78% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Andratx v Migjorn~~2.80 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~14 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Andratx win	78%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Migjorn win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Andratx or draw	92%	–	–
Andratx clean sheet	51%	–	–
Migjorn clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 3.8 2.7 1 9.0 6.4 2.4 2 11.4 7.8 2.9 3 10.2 6.6 2.4 4 7.3 4.5 5 4.5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Andratx down, Migjorn across0–5 goals a side shown (91.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,643 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Andratx at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Migjorn away: 0.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for Andratx, 0.69 for Migjorn. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 12 Sept

ANDRATX

WDDLLL1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1

MIGJORN

LLWLLD1–3 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Constància	7	+10	16
2	Manacor	7	+9	16
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
4	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	7	−1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	−1	8
13	Binissalem	6	−3	6
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Arenal	7	−9	4
16	Migjorn	7	−9	4
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1