Alcúdia v Llosetense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Alcúdia 2–0 Llosetense LLOSETENSE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llosetense win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llosetense win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Llosetense was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 36–24–40
1′KICK-OFF Alcúdia v Llosetense
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Llosetense win 34%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+9' Llosetense win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–42–30
59′We said Llosetense at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 27–45–28
FTFULL TIME Alcúdia 2–0 Llosetense
FTAlcúdia 2–0 Llosetense · Llosetense win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Llosetense just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcúdia 36%, draw 24%, Llosetense 40%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Alcúdia v LlosetenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Alcúdia win36%

Draw24%

Llosetense win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 11 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcúdia

Llosetense

14Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Llosetense	7	−1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llosetense winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Llosetense a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcúdia v Llosetense~~1.50 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Llosetense win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcúdia win	36%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Llosetense win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Alcúdia or draw	60%	–	–
Alcúdia clean sheet	21%	–	–
Llosetense clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.8 7.2 5.7 3.0 1 6.9 10.8 8.4 4.4 2 5.2 8.0 6.3 3.3 3 2.6 4.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcúdia down, Llosetense across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,643 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alcúdia at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Llosetense away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Alcúdia, 1.58 for Llosetense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALC 2–1 LLO · LLO 2–0 ALC · ALC 1–2 LLO · LLO 1–3 ALC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 this season · since 6 Sept

ALCÚDIA

WWLLLW5–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–6 · 1–0

LLOSETENSE

LDWWLL0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Constància	7	+10	16
2	Manacor	7	+9	16
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	+9	16
4	Platges Calvià	7	+7	15
5	Cardassar	7	+6	13
6	Santanyí	6	+5	12
7	Formentera	6	+4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	+3	11
9	Llosetense	7	−1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	0	9
11	Porreres	6	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	−1	8
13	Binissalem	6	−3	6
14	Andratx	7	−4	5
15	Arenal	7	−9	4
16	Migjorn	7	−9	4
17	Sineu	7	−13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	−13	1