Xerez Deportivo v San Roque Lepe prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Xerez Deportivo 2–2 San Roque Lepe XEREZ DEPORTIVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Xerez Deportivo win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Xerez Deportivo win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Xerez Deportivo was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–20
4′Much as we predicted: Xerez Deportivo was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
23′Xerez Deportivo find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
29′Xerez Deportivo find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
44′32′ and it is 1–2: San Roque Lepe have scored. 1–2 · 12–27–61
45′32′ and it is 1–2: San Roque Lepe have scored. 1–2 · 12–27–61
48′We said Xerez Deportivo at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–27–62
68′We said Xerez Deportivo at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 4% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 4% now
72′We said Xerez Deportivo at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–78
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 3% now
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Xerez Deportivo 2–2 San Roque Lepe
90′Xerez Deportivo find the net on 82′. 2–2. 2–2 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was San Roque Lepe win 0%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Xerez Deportivo win: 51% at kick-off, 4% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' San Roque Lepe win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
FTFULL TIME Xerez Deportivo 2–2 San Roque Lepe
FTXerez Deportivo 2–2 San Roque Lepe · Xerez Deportivo win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Xerez Deportivo win51%

Draw29%

San Roque Lepe win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Xerez Deportivo

San Roque Lepe

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	San Roque Lepe	5	−1	7
10	Xerez Deportivo	5	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · xerez deportivo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Xerez Deportivo a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xerez Deportivo win	51%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
San Roque Lepe win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Xerez Deportivo or draw	80%	–	–
Xerez Deportivo clean sheet	47%	–	–
San Roque Lepe clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 12.5 7.9 3.4 1 15.2 12.7 4.6 2 11.2 8.3 3.2 3 5.4 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xerez Deportivo down, San Roque Lepe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,484 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Xerez Deportivo at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Roque Lepe away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Xerez Deportivo, 0.76 for San Roque Lepe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

XEREZ DEPORTIVO

WLWWLD2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

SAN ROQUE LEPE

LDLLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	5	+11	13
2	Utrera	5	+2	12
3	Tomares	6	+2	11
4	Betis C	5	+5	10
5	Portuense	5	+4	10
6	Pozoblanco	5	+4	9
7	Egabrense	5	+2	8
8	Chiclana	6	−1	8
9	San Roque Lepe	5	−1	7
10	Xerez Deportivo	5	−1	7
11	Ceuta II	6	−4	7
12	Linense	5	−1	6
13	Conil	6	−6	6
14	Cádiz II	5	0	5
15	Bollullos	6	−2	5
16	Sevilla III	6	−3	5
17	Recreativo Huelva	5	−4	4
18	Córdoba II	5	−7	1