Xerez Deportivo v Chiclana

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Xerez Deportivo win at 57%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Xerez Deportivo was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–18
3. 1′KICK-OFF Xerez Deportivo v Chiclana
4. 33′Chiclana find the net on 33′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–28–52
5. 33′We said Xerez Deportivo at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–28–52
6. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Xerez Deportivo 0–1 Chiclana
7. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Xerez Deportivo win: 57% at kick-off, 20% now
8. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Chiclana win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Xerez Deportivo win 48%)
9. 34′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 20–28–52
10. 35′A goal for Chiclana on 34′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 6–13–80
11. 35′We said Xerez Deportivo at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–13–80
12. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Xerez Deportivo 0–2 Chiclana
13. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Xerez Deportivo win: 57% at kick-off, 6% now
14. 44′We said Xerez Deportivo at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
15. 45′HALF-TIME Xerez Deportivo 0–2 Chiclana
16. 46′SECOND HALF Xerez Deportivo 0–2 Chiclana
17. 54′Xerez Deportivo score on 54′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 12–27–61
18. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Xerez Deportivo 1–2 Chiclana
19. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Xerez Deportivo win: 57% at kick-off, 12% now
20. 55′We said Xerez Deportivo at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–27–62
21. 55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 11–27–62
22. 56′Xerez Deportivo find the net on 56′. 2–2. 2–2 · 37–47–16
23. 56′We said Xerez Deportivo at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 37–47–16
24. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Xerez Deportivo 2–2 Chiclana
25. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Xerez Deportivo win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
26. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Chiclana win 63%)
27. 58′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 36–49–15
28. 61′We said Xerez Deportivo at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–51–15
29. 67′We said Xerez Deportivo at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–57–13
30. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Xerez Deportivo win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
31. 78′A goal for Xerez Deportivo on 77′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 91–8–0
32. 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Xerez Deportivo 3–2 Chiclana
33. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Xerez Deportivo win: 57% at kick-off, 91% now
34. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Xerez Deportivo win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 71%)
35. 79′We published Xerez Deportivo at 57%. Our model now makes it 92%. 3–2 · 92–8–0
36. 80′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 93–7–0
37. 85′We published Xerez Deportivo at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–4–0
38. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Xerez Deportivo win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
39. FTFULL TIME Xerez Deportivo 3–2 Chiclana
40. FTXerez Deportivo 3–2 Chiclana · Xerez Deportivo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.