Tomares v Bollullos prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Tomares 1–0 Bollullos TOMARES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tomares win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tomares win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tomares 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–26
1′KICK-OFF Tomares v Bollullos
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Tomares win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tomares win 36%)
44′Bollullos are down to ten from 44′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 36–42–22
44′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Bollullos
45′HALF-TIME Tomares 0–0 Bollullos
46′SECOND HALF Tomares 0–0 Bollullos
48′We said Tomares at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
49′Tomares have ten men and Bollullos ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 34–45–21
49′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Tomares
59′Tomares find the net on 59′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
59′We said Tomares at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Tomares 1–0 Bollullos
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Tomares win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Tomares win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
69′We said Tomares at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Tomares win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
78′We said Tomares at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
85′We said Tomares at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Tomares win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Tomares 1–0 Bollullos
FTTomares 1–0 Bollullos · Tomares win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tomares are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tomares 46%, draw 29%, Bollullos 26%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Tomares v BollullosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tomares win46%

Draw29%

Bollullos win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tomares

Bollullos

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tomares	6	+2	11
16	Bollullos	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tomares winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Tomares a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tomares v Bollullos~~1.39 – 0.97

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 5~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tomares win	46%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Bollullos win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Tomares or draw	74%	–	–
Tomares clean sheet	38%	–	–
Bollullos clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.5 8.5 4.5 1 12.4 13.3 6.1 2 9.1 8.6 4.2 3 4.2 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tomares down, Bollullos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tomares at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bollullos away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Tomares, 0.97 for Bollullos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BOL 1–3 TOM · TOM 0–1 BOL · TOM 2–1 BOL · BOL 1–2 TOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept

TOMARES

DLWWDW2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

BOLLULLOS

LDLLDW0–2 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Portuense	6	+7	13
4	Betis C	6	+6	13
5	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
6	Tomares	6	+2	11
7	Egabrense	6	+1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8
10	Chiclana	6	−1	8
11	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
12	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7
13	Linense	6	−2	6
14	Conil	6	−6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	−1	5
16	Bollullos	6	−2	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2