Sevilla III v Conil prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sevilla IIIDrawConil

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sevilla III 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sevilla III are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sevilla III 43%, draw 29%, Conil 28%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sevilla III v ConilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sevilla III win43%

Draw29%

Conil win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sevilla III

Conil

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Conil	7	−5	9
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sevilla iii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sevilla III a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sevilla III v Conil~~1.30 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~17 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sevilla III win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Conil win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Sevilla III or draw	72%	–	–
Sevilla III clean sheet	37%	–	–
Conil clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.1 9.4 5.0 1 12.4 13.6 6.4 2.1 2 8.5 8.3 4.1 3 3.7 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sevilla III down, Conil across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sevilla III at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Conil away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Sevilla III, 0.99 for Conil. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CON 2–0 SEV · SEV 1–0 CON · SEV 3–1 CON · CON 0–0 SEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 13 Sept

SEVILLA III

LWDDLL2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–5

CONIL

LLLWLW0–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Betis C	7	+6	14
4	Tomares	7	+3	14
5	Portuense	7	+6	13
6	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
7	San Roque Lepe	7	+2	11
8	Xerez Deportivo	7	0	11
9	Chiclana	7	−1	9
10	Conil	7	−5	9
11	Egabrense	7	0	8
12	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
13	Linense	7	−2	7
14	Recreativo Huelva	7	−6	7
15	Cádiz II	7	−1	6
16	Bollullos	7	−3	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2