San Roque Lepe v Egabrense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Roque LepeDrawEgabrense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Roque Lepe 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Roque Lepe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Roque Lepe 50%, draw 26%, Egabrense 24%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on San Roque Lepe v EgabrenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Roque Lepe win50%

Draw26%

Egabrense win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Roque Lepe

Egabrense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	San Roque Lepe	7	+2	11
12	Egabrense	7	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san roque lepe winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make San Roque Lepe a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Roque Lepe v Egabrense~~1.61 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Roque Lepe win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Roque Lepe win	50%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Egabrense win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
San Roque Lepe or draw	76%	–	–
San Roque Lepe clean sheet	35%	–	–
Egabrense clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.9 6.8 3.9 1 10.6 12.2 6.1 2.2 2 8.9 9.2 4.8 3 4.9 5.0 2.6 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Roque Lepe down, Egabrense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

San Roque Lepe at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Egabrense away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for San Roque Lepe, 1.05 for Egabrense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 12 Sept

SAN ROQUE LEPE

LLWWDW0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

EGABRENSE

WLDDLL3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	7	0	15
3	Betis C	7	+6	14
4	Tomares	7	+3	14
5	Xerez Deportivo	8	+1	14
6	Portuense	7	+6	13
7	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
8	San Roque Lepe	7	+2	11
9	Ceuta II	8	−1	11
10	Chiclana	8	−2	9
11	Conil	7	−5	9
12	Egabrense	7	0	8
13	Linense	7	−2	7
14	Recreativo Huelva	7	−6	7
15	Cádiz II	7	−1	6
16	Bollullos	7	−3	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2