Recreativo Huelva v San Roque Lepe prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Recreativo Huelva 0–3 San Roque Lepe RECREATIVO HUELVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Recreativo Huelva win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Recreativo Huelva win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Recreativo Huelva v San Roque Lepe
2′Little has changed for our model: Recreativo Huelva 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–26
37′A goal for San Roque Lepe on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
37′We said Recreativo Huelva at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–63
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Recreativo Huelva 0–1 San Roque Lepe
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Recreativo Huelva win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' San Roque Lepe win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Recreativo Huelva win 12%)
45′HALF-TIME Recreativo Huelva 0–1 San Roque Lepe
46′SECOND HALF Recreativo Huelva 0–1 San Roque Lepe
48′We said Recreativo Huelva at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Recreativo Huelva win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
65′We said Recreativo Huelva at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
93′San Roque Lepe score on 90′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Recreativo Huelva 0–2 San Roque Lepe
FTFULL TIME Recreativo Huelva 0–3 San Roque Lepe
FTRecreativo Huelva 0–3 San Roque Lepe · Recreativo Huelva win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Recreativo Huelva are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Recreativo Huelva 45%, draw 29%, San Roque Lepe 26%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Recreativo Huelva v San Roque LepeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Recreativo Huelva win45%

Draw29%

San Roque Lepe win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Recreativo Huelva

San Roque Lepe

4Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Federacion

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

5Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
13	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · recreativo huelva winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Recreativo Huelva a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Recreativo Huelva v San Roque Lepe~~1.34 – 0.94

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~13 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Recreativo Huelva win	45%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
San Roque Lepe win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Recreativo Huelva or draw	74%	–	–
Recreativo Huelva clean sheet	39%	–	–
San Roque Lepe clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.2 8.9 4.6 1 12.9 13.4 6.0 2 9.1 8.4 4.0 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Recreativo Huelva down, San Roque Lepe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Recreativo Huelva at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Roque Lepe away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Recreativo Huelva, 0.94 for San Roque Lepe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 4–0 REC · REC 1–1 SAN · REC 1–1 SAN · SAN 0–1 REC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept

RECREATIVO HUELVA

WLLLDW2–0 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

SAN ROQUE LEPE

DLLWWD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Tomares	7	+3	14
4	Portuense	6	+7	13
5	Betis C	6	+6	13
6	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
7	Egabrense	6	+1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8
10	Chiclana	6	−1	8
11	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
12	Linense	7	−2	7
13	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7
14	Cádiz II	7	−1	6
15	Conil	6	−6	6
16	Bollullos	7	−3	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2