Pozoblanco v Ceuta II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Pozoblanco 1–1 Ceuta II POZOBLANCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pozoblanco win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pozoblanco win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pozoblanco was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Pozoblanco v Ceuta II
19′Much as we predicted: Pozoblanco was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–32–24
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pozoblanco win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozoblanco win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Pozoblanco 0–0 Ceuta II
46′Ceuta II score on 46′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
46′We said Pozoblanco at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–25–64
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Pozoblanco 0–1 Ceuta II
46′SECOND HALF Pozoblanco 0–1 Ceuta II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Pozoblanco win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Ceuta II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 25%)
50′We said Pozoblanco at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Pozoblanco win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
67′We said Pozoblanco at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
79′Pozoblanco find the net on 79′. 1–1. 1–1 · 14–76–9
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pozoblanco 1–1 Ceuta II
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Pozoblanco win: 47% at kick-off, 14% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Ceuta II win 9%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Pozoblanco win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
FTFULL TIME Pozoblanco 1–1 Ceuta II
FTPozoblanco 1–1 Ceuta II · Pozoblanco win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pozoblanco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pozoblanco 47%, draw 28%, Ceuta II 25%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Pozoblanco v Ceuta IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pozoblanco win47%

Draw28%

Ceuta II win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:45

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pozoblanco

Ceuta II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pozoblanco	6	+4	10
12	Ceuta II	6	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pozoblanco winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Pozoblanco a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pozoblanco v Ceuta II~~1.42 – 0.96

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~6 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pozoblanco win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Ceuta II win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Pozoblanco or draw	75%	–	–
Pozoblanco clean sheet	39%	–	–
Ceuta II clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.2 8.3 4.3 1 12.5 13.1 5.9 2 9.3 8.8 4.2 3 4.5 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pozoblanco down, Ceuta II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pozoblanco at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ceuta II away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Pozoblanco, 0.96 for Ceuta II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CEU 0–1 POZ · POZ 3–0 CEU · CEU 4–1 POZ · POZ 2–1 CEU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 5 Sept

POZOBLANCO

LWLWWD0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2

CEUTA II

DLWLLW1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Utrera	6	+3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	+8	13
3	Portuense	6	+7	13
4	Betis C	6	+6	13
5	Tomares	6	+2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	+4	10
7	Egabrense	6	+1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8
10	Chiclana	6	−1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	−4	7
13	Linense	6	−2	6
14	Conil	6	−6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	−1	5
16	Bollullos	6	−2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	−3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2