Portuense v Pozoblanco prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PortuenseDrawPozoblanco

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Portuense 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portuense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portuense 53%, draw 26%, Pozoblanco 21%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Portuense v PozoblancoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Portuense win53%

Draw26%

Pozoblanco win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portuense

Pozoblanco

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Portuense	7	+6	13
6	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · portuense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Portuense a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portuense v Pozoblanco~~1.67 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portuense win	53%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Pozoblanco win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Portuense or draw	79%	–	–
Portuense clean sheet	39%	–	–
Pozoblanco clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.2 6.4 3.4 1 11.4 12.0 5.5 2 9.9 9.3 4.5 3 5.6 5.2 2.5 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portuense down, Pozoblanco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Portuense at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Pozoblanco away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Portuense, 0.97 for Pozoblanco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 13 Sept

PORTUENSE

WWLDWL2–0 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

POZOBLANCO

WLWWDD3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Betis C	7	+6	14
4	Tomares	7	+3	14
5	Portuense	7	+6	13
6	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
7	San Roque Lepe	7	+2	11
8	Xerez Deportivo	7	0	11
9	Chiclana	7	−1	9
10	Conil	7	−5	9
11	Egabrense	7	0	8
12	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
13	Linense	7	−2	7
14	Recreativo Huelva	7	−6	7
15	Cádiz II	7	−1	6
16	Bollullos	7	−3	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2