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Portuense v Dos Hermanas

Portuense

3–0Full time

Dos Hermanas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Portuense 3–0 Dos Hermanas DOS HERMANAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dos Hermanas win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.608

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dos Hermanas win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dos Hermanas was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
7′Much as we predicted: Dos Hermanas was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
29′A goal for Portuense on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–14
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
38′A goal for Portuense on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
45′We said Dos Hermanas at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
45′HALF-TIME Portuense 1–0 Dos Hermanas
46′SECOND HALF Portuense 1–0 Dos Hermanas
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Portuense win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dos Hermanas win 10%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Portuense win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dos Hermanas win 10%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Portuense win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dos Hermanas win 10%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Portuense win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dos Hermanas win 10%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Portuense win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dos Hermanas win 10%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Dos Hermanas win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Portuense win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dos Hermanas win 10%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Portuense 2–0 Dos Hermanas
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Portuense 3–0 Dos Hermanas
FTFULL TIME Portuense 3–0 Dos Hermanas
FTPortuense 3–0 Dos Hermanas · Dos Hermanas win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Portuense win37%

Draw25%

Dos Hermanas win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Portuense

Dos Hermanas

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	5	+11	13
5	Portuense	5	+4	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dos hermanas winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Dos Hermanas a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portuense win	37%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Dos Hermanas win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Portuense or draw	62%	–	–
Portuense clean sheet	22%	–	–
Dos Hermanas clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.7 6.7 5.6 2.9 1 6.5 11.5 8.2 4.3 2 5.4 8.1 6.1 3.2 3 2.8 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portuense down, Dos Hermanas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,484 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Portuense at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Dos Hermanas away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Portuense, 1.55 for Dos Hermanas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

PORTUENSE

WWWLD1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

DOS HERMANAS

LWDWWW1–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	5	+11	13
2	Utrera	5	+2	12
3	Tomares	6	+2	11
4	Betis C	5	+5	10
5	Portuense	5	+4	10
6	Pozoblanco	5	+4	9
7	Egabrense	5	+2	8
8	Chiclana	6	−1	8
9	San Roque Lepe	5	−1	7
10	Xerez Deportivo	5	−1	7
11	Ceuta II	6	−4	7
12	Linense	5	−1	6
13	Conil	6	−6	6
14	Cádiz II	5	0	5
15	Bollullos	6	−2	5
16	Sevilla III	6	−3	5
17	Recreativo Huelva	5	−4	4
18	Córdoba II	5	−7	1