Egabrense v Xerez Deportivo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 03:22

Egabrense 1–2 Xerez Deportivo EGABRENSE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Egabrense win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.728

Corrected on 21 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 0–2; the score is now 1–2 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Egabrense win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Egabrense 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Egabrense v Xerez Deportivo
25′A goal for Xerez Deportivo on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–61
25′We said Egabrense at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–61
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Egabrense 0–1 Xerez Deportivo
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Egabrense win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Xerez Deportivo win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Egabrense win 16%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–62
31′Xerez Deportivo score on 31′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–85
31′We said Egabrense at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Egabrense 0–2 Xerez Deportivo
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Egabrense win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Egabrense win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
45′HALF-TIME Egabrense 0–2 Xerez Deportivo
46′SECOND HALF Egabrense 0–2 Xerez Deportivo
FTFULL TIME Egabrense 0–2 Xerez Deportivo
FTEgabrense 1–2 Xerez Deportivo · Egabrense win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Egabrense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Egabrense 43%, draw 27%, Xerez Deportivo 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Egabrense v Xerez DeportivoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Egabrense win43%

Draw27%

Xerez Deportivo win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Egabrense

Xerez Deportivo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Egabrense	6	+1	8
10	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · egabrense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Egabrense a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Egabrense v Xerez Deportivo~~1.49 – 1.24

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Egabrense win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Xerez Deportivo win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Egabrense or draw	69%	–	–
Egabrense clean sheet	30%	–	–
Xerez Deportivo clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.7 7.6 5.1 2.1 1 9.1 12.3 7.1 3.0 2 7.3 8.6 5.2 2.2 3 3.7 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Egabrense down, Xerez Deportivo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Egabrense at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Xerez Deportivo away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Egabrense, 1.24 for Xerez Deportivo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept

EGABRENSE

WWLDDL4–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–3

XEREZ DEPORTIVO

LWWLDD0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Betis C	7	+6	14
4	Tomares	7	+3	14
5	Portuense	6	+7	13
6	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
7	Chiclana	7	−1	9
8	Egabrense	6	+1	8
9	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
10	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8
11	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
12	Linense	7	−2	7
13	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7
14	Cádiz II	7	−1	6
15	Conil	6	−6	6
16	Bollullos	7	−3	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2