Dos Hermanas v Sevilla III prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Dos Hermanas 5–1 Sevilla III DOS HERMANAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dos Hermanas win~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.144

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dos Hermanas win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dos Hermanas was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–19–12
1′KICK-OFF Dos Hermanas v Sevilla III
22′Dos Hermanas find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
22′We published Dos Hermanas at 69%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Dos Hermanas 1–0 Sevilla III
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Dos Hermanas win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
34′A goal for Dos Hermanas on 34′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
34′We published Dos Hermanas at 69%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Dos Hermanas 2–0 Sevilla III
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Dos Hermanas win: 69% at kick-off, 97% now
40′Dos Hermanas score on 40′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
40′We published Dos Hermanas at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Dos Hermanas 3–0 Sevilla III
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Dos Hermanas win: 69% at kick-off, over 99% now
43′Dos Hermanas find the net on 43′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Dos Hermanas 4–0 Sevilla III
44′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Dos Hermanas 4–0 Sevilla III
46′SECOND HALF Dos Hermanas 4–0 Sevilla III
50′A goal for Dos Hermanas on 49′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
50′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Dos Hermanas 5–0 Sevilla III
64′Sevilla III score on 64′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
64′6 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Dos Hermanas 5–1 Sevilla III
FTFULL TIME Dos Hermanas 5–1 Sevilla III
FTDos Hermanas 5–1 Sevilla III · Dos Hermanas win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dos Hermanas are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dos Hermanas 69%, draw 19%, Sevilla III 12%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Dos Hermanas v Sevilla IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dos Hermanas win69%

Draw19%

Sevilla III win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dos Hermanas

Sevilla III

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dos Hermanas	6	+8	13
17	Sevilla III	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dos hermanas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make Dos Hermanas a 69% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dos Hermanas v Sevilla III~~2.27 – 0.82

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 5~~2 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dos Hermanas win	69%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Sevilla III win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Dos Hermanas or draw	88%	–	–
Dos Hermanas clean sheet	44%	–	–
Sevilla III clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 5.3 3.4 1 10.0 8.9 3.5 2 11.6 9.4 3.8 3 8.7 7.0 2.9 4 5.0 4.0 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Dos Hermanas down, Sevilla III across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dos Hermanas at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sevilla III away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Dos Hermanas, 0.82 for Sevilla III. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SEV 1–1 DOS · DOS 3–0 SEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept

DOS HERMANAS

WDWWWL3–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 0–3

SEVILLA III

LLWDDL0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Utrera	6	+3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	+8	13
3	Portuense	6	+7	13
4	Betis C	6	+6	13
5	Tomares	6	+2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	+4	10
7	Egabrense	6	+1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8
10	Chiclana	6	−1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	−4	7
13	Linense	6	−2	6
14	Conil	6	−6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	−1	5
16	Bollullos	6	−2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	−3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2