Conil v Portuense

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Portuense win at 36%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Portuense 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–36
3. 1′KICK-OFF Conil v Portuense
4. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Conil win 32%)
5. 39′Portuense score on 39′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–69
6. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Conil 0–1 Portuense
7. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Portuense win: 36% at kick-off, 69% now
8. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Portuense win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 21%)
9. 40′We said Portuense at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
10. 40′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
11. 45′HALF-TIME Conil 0–1 Portuense
12. 46′SECOND HALF Conil 0–1 Portuense
13. 57′We said Portuense at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
14. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Portuense win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
15. 68′We said Portuense at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
16. 74′Conil find the net on 73′. 1–1. 1–1 · 16–67–16
17. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Conil 1–1 Portuense
18. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Portuense win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
19. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Portuense win 16%)
20. 75′We said Portuense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 15–69–16
21. 77′We said Portuense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
22. 82′We said Portuense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–81–9
23. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Portuense win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
24. 89′A goal for Conil on 89′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
25. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Conil 2–1 Portuense
26. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Conil win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 4%)
27. 90′We said Portuense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
28. 92′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
29. FTFULL TIME Conil 2–1 Portuense
30. FTConil 2–1 Portuense · Portuense win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.