Chiclana v Betis C prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Chiclana 2–2 Betis C CHICLANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chiclana win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chiclana win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chiclana was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Chiclana v Betis C
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chiclana win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Chiclana 0–0 Betis C
46′SECOND HALF Chiclana 0–0 Betis C
48′A goal for Betis C on 48′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Chiclana 0–1 Betis C
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Chiclana win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Betis C win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
49′We said Chiclana at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
54′Betis C score on 54′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Chiclana 0–2 Betis C
55′We said Chiclana at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
55′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–93
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Chiclana win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′Chiclana find the net on 85′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–92
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–7–92
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Chiclana 1–2 Betis C
92′A goal for Chiclana on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 3–94–3
92′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 3–94–3
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Chiclana 2–2 Betis C
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Betis C win 3%)
FTFULL TIME Chiclana 2–2 Betis C
FTChiclana 2–2 Betis C · Chiclana win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chiclana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chiclana 40%, draw 27%, Betis C 34%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Chiclana v Betis CBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chiclana win40%

Draw27%

Betis C win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chiclana

Betis C

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Betis C	6	+6	13
10	Chiclana	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chiclana winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Chiclana a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chiclana v Betis C~~1.44 – 1.31

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chiclana win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Betis C win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Chiclana or draw	66%	–	–
Chiclana clean sheet	28%	–	–
Betis C clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.5 7.8 5.5 2.4 1 8.6 12.5 7.7 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 3 3.2 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chiclana down, Betis C across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Chiclana at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Betis C away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Chiclana, 1.31 for Betis C. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 5 Sept

CHICLANA

WDLWDL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

BETIS C

WDWWLW2–0 · 3–3 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Portuense	6	+7	13
4	Betis C	6	+6	13
5	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
6	Tomares	6	+2	11
7	Egabrense	6	+1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	−1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	−1	8
10	Chiclana	6	−1	8
11	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
12	Recreativo Huelva	6	−3	7
13	Linense	6	−2	6
14	Conil	6	−6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	−1	5
16	Bollullos	6	−2	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2