Ceuta II v Utrera prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Ceuta II 5–2 Utrera CEUTA II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ceuta II win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.503

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ceuta II win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ceuta II was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
1′KICK-OFF Ceuta II v Utrera
30′A goal for Ceuta II on 30′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ceuta II 2–0 Utrera
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ceuta II win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
31′We published Ceuta II at 42%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
34′Ceuta II find the net on 33′. 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
34′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 93–6–1
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ceuta II 3–1 Utrera
45′HALF-TIME Ceuta II 3–1 Utrera
46′We published Ceuta II at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–5–1
46′SECOND HALF Ceuta II 3–1 Utrera
57′A goal for Utrera on 57′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 79–17–4
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Ceuta II 3–2 Utrera
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Ceuta II win: 42% at kick-off, 79% now
58′We published Ceuta II at 42%. Our model now makes it 79%. 3–2 · 79–17–4
59′We published Ceuta II at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
59′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 80–17–3
71′We published Ceuta II at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
75′Ceuta II score on 75′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
75′6 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 99–1–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ceuta II 4–2 Utrera
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Ceuta II win: 42% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Ceuta II at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
96′Ceuta II find the net on 90′. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
96′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Ceuta II 5–2 Utrera
FTFULL TIME Ceuta II 5–2 Utrera
FTCeuta II 5–2 Utrera · Ceuta II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ceuta II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ceuta II 42%, draw 29%, Utrera 29%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Ceuta II v UtreraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ceuta II win42%

Draw29%

Utrera win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:15

RoundGroup 10 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ceuta II

Utrera

7Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
12	Ceuta II	7	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ceuta ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Ceuta II a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ceuta II v Utrera~~1.30 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 15~~12 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ceuta II win	42%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Utrera win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Ceuta II or draw	71%	–	–
Ceuta II clean sheet	36%	–	–
Utrera clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.7 9.3 5.2 1 12.0 13.6 6.6 2.3 2 8.2 8.3 4.2 3 3.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ceuta II down, Utrera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ceuta II at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Utrera away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Ceuta II, 1.03 for Utrera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CEU 1–1 UTR · UTR 3–2 CEU · UTR 4–3 CEU · CEU 0–0 UTR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 this season · since 6 Sept

CEUTA II

LWLLWD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 3–0 · 1–1

UTRERA

LWWWWW0–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	7	+12	16
2	Utrera	6	+3	15
3	Betis C	7	+6	14
4	Tomares	7	+3	14
5	Portuense	7	+6	13
6	Pozoblanco	7	+4	11
7	San Roque Lepe	7	+2	11
8	Xerez Deportivo	7	0	11
9	Chiclana	7	−1	9
10	Conil	7	−5	9
11	Egabrense	7	0	8
12	Ceuta II	7	−4	8
13	Linense	7	−2	7
14	Recreativo Huelva	7	−6	7
15	Cádiz II	7	−1	6
16	Bollullos	7	−3	5
17	Sevilla III	7	−7	5
18	Córdoba II	6	−7	2