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Cádiz II v Recreativo Huelva

Cádiz II

0–1Full time

Recreativo Huelva

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Cádiz II 0–1 Recreativo Huelva CÁDIZ II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cádiz II win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.000

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cádiz II win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cádiz II was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–21
7′Much as we predicted: Cádiz II was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–21
37′Recreativo Huelva find the net on 35′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–28–55
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 48% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Cádiz II win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Recreativo Huelva win 20%)
45′Recreativo Huelva find the net on 35′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–28–58
45′We said Cádiz II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Cádiz II win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Recreativo Huelva win 20%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 18% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Cádiz II win 18%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 48% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Cádiz II win 14%)
45′HALF-TIME Cádiz II 0–1 Recreativo Huelva
46′SECOND HALF Cádiz II 0–1 Recreativo Huelva
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Cádiz II win 14%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Cádiz II win 14%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Cádiz II win 14%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Cádiz II win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Cádiz II win 14%)
FTFULL TIME Cádiz II 0–1 Recreativo Huelva
FTCádiz II 0–1 Recreativo Huelva · Cádiz II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cádiz II win54%

Draw26%

Recreativo Huelva win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cádiz II

Recreativo Huelva

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Cádiz II	5	0	5
17	Recreativo Huelva	5	−4	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cádiz ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Cádiz II a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cádiz II win	54%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Recreativo Huelva win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Cádiz II or draw	80%	–	–
Cádiz II clean sheet	41%	–	–
Recreativo Huelva clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.7 6.3 3.2 1 12.0 12.1 5.2 2 10.5 9.3 4.2 3 5.8 5.2 2.3 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cádiz II down, Recreativo Huelva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,484 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cádiz II at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Recreativo Huelva away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Cádiz II, 0.91 for Recreativo Huelva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAD 1–0 REC · REC 1–2 CAD

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

CÁDIZ II

LDDWLL1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

RECREATIVO HUELVA

WWLLLD2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dos Hermanas	5	+11	13
2	Utrera	5	+2	12
3	Tomares	6	+2	11
4	Betis C	5	+5	10
5	Portuense	5	+4	10
6	Pozoblanco	5	+4	9
7	Egabrense	5	+2	8
8	Chiclana	6	−1	8
9	San Roque Lepe	5	−1	7
10	Xerez Deportivo	5	−1	7
11	Ceuta II	6	−4	7
12	Linense	5	−1	6
13	Conil	6	−6	6
14	Cádiz II	5	0	5
15	Bollullos	6	−2	5
16	Sevilla III	6	−3	5
17	Recreativo Huelva	5	−4	4
18	Córdoba II	5	−7	1